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Experts: Signs show economy on the rebound
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| Economic forum: Benson City Manager Glenn Nichols delivers his address during the Benson Economic Forum Friday at Cochise College Benson Center. (Thelma Grimes/photo.) |
Thelma Grimes/San Pedro Valley News-Sun
Robert Carreira, director of the Cochise College Center for Economic Research, said "things are negative, but they are getting less bad," Friday during the annual economic outlook luncheon held in Benson.
Besides providing local numbers, Carreira started his speech with some national data. With the national recession entering the 22nd month, it is now the longest post- World War II streak.
"Many national economists have marked the end of the recession," Carreira said. "But the end of the recession means we have simply stopped declining and are now on the path to recovery."
As Carreira worked to break down the different indicators in the economy such as unemployment, real estate and sales taxes, he stressed that in all areas, "things are still negative, but they are getting less bad."
At the state level, Carreira said three years ago, due to increased housing construction, Arizona was one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. Now, in terms of growth, Arizona is ranked 43rd.
More than 6.9 million Arizona jobs have been lost in the recession. However, in Cochise County and at the local level, Carreira said the unemployment rate has not suffered as much as the state and nation.
During the 90-minute event, which had about 60 people in attendance, Carreira said no matter what the decreases in construction or retail sales, Benson is still performing better than it did five years ago.
The luncheon was much more scaled down this year, with about half the attendance of the last two years. Missing this year were housing developers, who regularly attended the event over the last several years.
The lack of developers may be due to the decrease in construction around the city. With a spike of more than 104 new-home permits in 2006, in 2007 there were 25 and in all of 2008 there were 64.
So far in 2009, there have been 18 new-home permits pulled.
In closing the luncheon, City Manager Glenn Nichols said Benson will be in good shape as the economy continues to improve.
In his first major address since being named city manager last year, Nichols said there isn't a lot of inventory in Benson, so as the housing market improves, the city is in good position for new construction.
However, softening the blow, Carreira stressed that these numbers are still better than those in the early part of this decade, noting that in all of 2005, five permits were pulled.
Carreira added that even the decreasing sales tax numbers are still a lot better than earlier this decade.
More importantly, in 2006 with the opening of Wal-Mart, Carreira said sales tax numbers spiked by almost 40 percent. However, between this year and last year, there is about an eight percent decrease.
Restaurant growth and production was also discussed, as Carreira said new businesses such as Gracie's Station improved Benson numbers, but once the newness wears off, the industry will see a decline.
Carreira said Benson restaurant and bar sales had been struggling since 2005, but in the first four months of 2009, sales rebounded considerably, growing at a pace of 5.6 percent compared to the same period a year prior. Sales also outperformed county sales, which had a 3.4 percent decline.
Nichols said he hopes those numbers continue to increase, noting that besides Gracie's, the newly-opened Irene's on 4th Street appears to be doing well.
In conclusion, Carreira said the slow economy will continue since consumer confidence is still low, and unemployment rates are expected to stay high through late 2010.
Carreira said the bottom line for all cities, counties, state and the nation is that the "recession is over, but it doesn't mean the economy is back to good."
Carreira warned those in attendance to remain cautious, noting that there are still a lot of unknowns about the current state of the national and local economies.
Robert Carreira, director of the Cochise College Center for Economic Research, said "things are negative, but they are getting less bad," Friday during the annual economic outlook luncheon held in Benson.
Besides providing local numbers, Carreira started his speech with some national data. With the national recession entering the 22nd month, it is now the longest post- World War II streak.
"Many national economists have marked the end of the recession," Carreira said. "But the end of the recession means we have simply stopped declining and are now on the path to recovery."
As Carreira worked to break down the different indicators in the economy such as unemployment, real estate and sales taxes, he stressed that in all areas, "things are still negative, but they are getting less bad."
At the state level, Carreira said three years ago, due to increased housing construction, Arizona was one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. Now, in terms of growth, Arizona is ranked 43rd.
More than 6.9 million Arizona jobs have been lost in the recession. However, in Cochise County and at the local level, Carreira said the unemployment rate has not suffered as much as the state and nation.
During the 90-minute event, which had about 60 people in attendance, Carreira said no matter what the decreases in construction or retail sales, Benson is still performing better than it did five years ago.
The luncheon was much more scaled down this year, with about half the attendance of the last two years. Missing this year were housing developers, who regularly attended the event over the last several years.
The lack of developers may be due to the decrease in construction around the city. With a spike of more than 104 new-home permits in 2006, in 2007 there were 25 and in all of 2008 there were 64.
So far in 2009, there have been 18 new-home permits pulled.
In closing the luncheon, City Manager Glenn Nichols said Benson will be in good shape as the economy continues to improve.
In his first major address since being named city manager last year, Nichols said there isn't a lot of inventory in Benson, so as the housing market improves, the city is in good position for new construction.
However, softening the blow, Carreira stressed that these numbers are still better than those in the early part of this decade, noting that in all of 2005, five permits were pulled.
Carreira added that even the decreasing sales tax numbers are still a lot better than earlier this decade.
More importantly, in 2006 with the opening of Wal-Mart, Carreira said sales tax numbers spiked by almost 40 percent. However, between this year and last year, there is about an eight percent decrease.
Restaurant growth and production was also discussed, as Carreira said new businesses such as Gracie's Station improved Benson numbers, but once the newness wears off, the industry will see a decline.
Carreira said Benson restaurant and bar sales had been struggling since 2005, but in the first four months of 2009, sales rebounded considerably, growing at a pace of 5.6 percent compared to the same period a year prior. Sales also outperformed county sales, which had a 3.4 percent decline.
Nichols said he hopes those numbers continue to increase, noting that besides Gracie's, the newly-opened Irene's on 4th Street appears to be doing well.
In conclusion, Carreira said the slow economy will continue since consumer confidence is still low, and unemployment rates are expected to stay high through late 2010.
Carreira said the bottom line for all cities, counties, state and the nation is that the "recession is over, but it doesn't mean the economy is back to good."
Carreira warned those in attendance to remain cautious, noting that there are still a lot of unknowns about the current state of the national and local economies.
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The following are comments from the readers. In no way do they represent the view of bensonnews-sun.com.
Guess what wrote on Oct 7, 2009 11:33 PM:
" More than half of those permits that were pulled this year in support of Bensons economy were pulled by Jay Kendrick owner of Stagecoach Trails MHC.
Thank you Mr. Kendrick on behalf of the tax payers in this community for supporting our economy and bringing a nice clean community to Benson for amny of us to live in. I for one, appologize for the dispicable behavior of some of our local residents and several city officials. UNBELIEVEABLE!!!!!!!!!!! "
Thank you Mr. Kendrick on behalf of the tax payers in this community for supporting our economy and bringing a nice clean community to Benson for amny of us to live in. I for one, appologize for the dispicable behavior of some of our local residents and several city officials. UNBELIEVEABLE!!!!!!!!!!! "
cdg wrote on Oct 13, 2009 5:29 AM:
" The recession would have ended six months earlier if the government hadn't tried to "fix" things with silly "stimulus" packages, and other counter-productive measures. "
think people Think wrote on Oct 13, 2009 7:59 PM:
" How the he!! can 6.9 million arizona jobs be lost when there aren't even that many people living in AZ????
6,500,180 - Jul 2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division "
6,500,180 - Jul 2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division "
Questioner wrote on Oct 17, 2009 4:56 PM:
" From this article: "More than 6.9 million Arizona jobs have been lost in the recession."
Question: How can you lose more jobs than total population in a state?
Answer: Just make up a good story and someone will believe it!
Question: What is the population of AZ?
Answer: 6,500,180 - Jul 2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division "
Question: How can you lose more jobs than total population in a state?
Answer: Just make up a good story and someone will believe it!
Question: What is the population of AZ?
Answer: 6,500,180 - Jul 2008
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Division "
J-6 wrote on Oct 7, 2009 9:01 PM: